Is Poland reviving its centuries-old strategy of turning to Turkey against Russia?

As the US wavers, Poland looks to Turkey, echoing past relations that once kept Russian power in check.

Back in the 16th and 17th centuries, Poland and the Ottoman Empire fought several wars, but that didn’t stop them from seeing each other as useful partners during peacetime. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth needed a counterweight against Russia, and the Ottomans were more than happy to keep Moscow in check. Even when they were on opposite sides of the battlefield, there was always an understanding: better to balance each other than let Russia gain too much power.

Fast forward to today, and Poland is once again looking to Turkey, not as an enemy, but as a strategic hedge. Donald Tusk’s visit to Ankara yesterday wasn’t just polite diplomacy. It was about something bigger: making sure Poland isn’t left vulnerable if the US pulls back from Europe and NATO.

Poland is fully committed to the EU, but it knows Brussels isn’t a military power and that Turkey is. And while NATO is still strong, Washington’s focus is turning away from Europe. Poland can’t afford to just hope for the best. It needs to take matters into its own hands. That’s why Tusk was in Ankara, shaking hands with Erdogan, talking about Ukraine, defence cooperation, and the future of European security.

Poland is doing what it needs to do, given its troublesome neighbourhood. It needs to think ahead and look for strong partners. The question is whether Poland can trust Erdogan to stay on the same page, or is this just another moment in Turkey’s long game of playing all sides?

Shared interest despite wars in 16th & 17th centuries

In the 16th and 17th centuries, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, at the time one of Europe’s largest states, was constantly dealing with Moscow’s expansionist ambitions. The Ottomans had their own problems with Russia, particularly over control of the Black Sea region. Despite their conflicts, the shared interest in limiting Russian power shaped their relationship, notably the "perpetual peace" treaty signed in 1533.

Fast forward a century, and King John III Sobieski is best remembered for leading the charge against the Ottomans at the Battle of Vienna in 1683. But even Sobieski, a staunch Catholic warrior, understood the need to keep Russia in check. Before Vienna, he had proposed an anti-Russian coalition that would have included the Ottomans.

That never materialised, but the idea was clear: Poland could fight the Ottomans when necessary, but long-term, Russia was the bigger problem.

Even into the 18th century, when Poland was weakened by internal divisions, some Polish leaders hoped to use the Ottomans to push back against Russia. It didn’t work as Poland was eventually partitioned out of existence, with Russia playing the biggest role in its destruction. But the logic of that strategy remained sound: when Russia is expanding, Poland needs strong allies to keep the balance. That same logic is driving Poland’s approach today.

Why Poland sees Turkey as a key player

Standing beside Erdogan in Ankara yesterday, Donald Tusk called the meeting a “historic breakthrough.” He spoke of mutual security, defence cooperation, and a just peace for Ukraine. The words were diplomatic, but it was clear that Poland sees Turkey as an increasingly important player in European security, and it wants Ankara to take a more active role. Why?

Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army and a rapidly expanding defence industry. Poland, meanwhile, is in the middle of its biggest military buildup since the Cold War, but even the best-equipped army needs strong allies. That’s why Warsaw has already bought Turkish Bayraktar drones, which played a key role in Ukraine’s early battlefield successes.

Poland has no diplomatic ties with Russia and doesn’t want them. Turkey, on the other hand, keeps open channels with both Moscow and Kyiv. That doesn’t mean Erdogan is a friend to Ukraine, he’s a master at playing all sides. But it does mean that if a post-war settlement happens, Turkey will be part of it. Poland wants a say in Ukraine’s future security, and it knows that Turkey’s influence in the region is too big to ignore.

However, Poland needs to be careful. Erdogan has a long history of playing both sides. One moment, he’s blocking Sweden’s NATO accession, the next, he’s making defence deals with Washington. Turkey has been both a headache and an asset to NATO, depending on the moment.

For now, Poland sees Turkey as a strategic hedge. This isn’t about choosing between NATO or the EU. Poland’s history has taught it one hard lesson: it can’t rely on anyone completely. Survival depends on playing a smarter game, building alliances, but never placing its fate in the hands of others.

Poland is at the heart of Europe. As the continent’s centre of gravity shifts, understanding Poland is key to understanding Europe itself.

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