MOLDOVA WATCH: Putin aims to take Moldova without a single soldier using money disinformation and fear
Russia is running a campaign funded with millions in illicit cash, amplified through fake social media profiles, AI-generated disinformation, and energy blackmail.
Russia has sacrificed up to a million soldiers trying to conquer Ukraine through force. In Moldova, it could seize control without losing a single one, using only cash, content, and psychological warfare by using influence in the parliamentary election on 28 September.
This will be Moldova’s first parliamentary election since Kremlin-backed interference flooded the country with funds equivalent to 1% of its GDP in 2024, in an attempt to block Moldova’s EU path and defeat Maia Sandu, the pro-European, centre-right president who ultimately won re-election.
That attempt failed, but only just. A narrow majority voted for constitutional changes anchoring EU accession. Now the September vote will decide whether Moldova can stay on that course or fall into paralysis, confusion, and Russian control without a single shot being fired.
President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, a pro-European, centre-right reformist party, faces not just Russian-backed opponents, but a campaign funded with millions in illicit cash, amplified through fake social media profiles, AI-generated disinformation, and energy blackmail linked to Gazprom cut-offs. All tools designed to stall Moldova’s European future.
Moldova’s geopolitical dilemma, trapped between powers
Moldova’s core problem is simple: it is stuck between Europe and Russia, without the strength to fully join one or stand up to the other. The country has just 2.6 million people, with nearly a third of its working-age population living abroad.
Remittances from the diaspora make up close to 30 percent of its GDP. The economy is small and fragile, with one in three people living below the poverty line.
Its location between EU member Romania and war-torn Ukraine means it is always in the middle of bigger power struggles. Every time Moldova tries to move closer to Europe, Russia pushes back.
The Kremlin uses gas blackmail, stirs up trouble in Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region in eastern Moldova that declared independence in 1990 but is not recognised internationally, and pours in money to influence elections.
Russia keeps around 1,500 troops in Transnistria, officially tasked with guarding Soviet-era weapons stockpiles, but seen by many as a tool of pressure on Moldova
Inside the country, the divide is just as clear. Many Moldovans look west to Europe. But others, especially in places like Gagauzia, an autonomous region in southern Moldova with strong pro-Moscow leanings, and Transnistria, see Moscow as their main ally.
Moldova’s sovereignty exists on paper, but in reality, it is a battleground where Russia tests how far it can go without triggering a NATO response.
Moldova’s EU accession bid
Moldova formally opened European Union accession negotiations in June 2024, after securing candidate status two years earlier. That step followed a razor-thin referendum win, with just over 50 percent of voters backing constitutional changes that embed EU membership as a national goal.
The outcome showed both the depth of public division and the scale of the challenge ahead. “That attempt [to block EU integration] failed, but only just,” said Valeriu Pașa, chair of Moldovan monitoring group WatchDog.MD.
The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), a pro-European, centre-right reformist party, leads Moldova’s EU effort. President Maia Sandu and PAS lawmakers argue that continued reforms: judicial vetting, anti-corruption measures, and institutional alignment, depend on securing a parliamentary majority this autumn.
Without it, the accession process could stall. Sandu has cast the choice in stark terms: “This is about putting Moldova’s future in the hands of its people, not Putin.”
On referendum day last October, young voters queued for hours in Chișinău to cast ballots, waving small EU flags and telling reporters they wanted “a European future, not Russian blackmail.”
Romania has been an active backer of Moldova’s EU track. As Adam Burakowski of the Polish Academy of Sciences said to TVP World, enlargement in this direction would also “give impulse for Ukrainian European Union aspirations and show that the European Union is capable of enlarging towards the East.”
But unresolved issues like Transnistria’s status, and Russia’s deepening interference, loom large.
Russia’s hybrid war in action
The Kremlin’s interference in Moldova is no longer covert. Moldova’s intelligence chief, Alexandru Musteață, has warned of an “unprecedented level of intensity” in Russian efforts to keep the country in Moscow’s orbit.
In 2024, Russian networks poured in funds equivalent to 1% of Moldova’s GDP, attempting to block EU accession and defeat President Maia Sandu. That campaign failed. Now, the methods have grown more sophisticated.
Illicit cash continues to flow, but disinformation is the front line. Moldova’s Security Service has identified AI-generated fake profiles spreading coordinated propaganda across Facebook, Telegram, and TikTok.
Recent deepfake videos showed Sandu supposedly promising to raise gas prices, clips that went viral on Telegram before being debunked by independent media.
These campaigns attack Sandu’s government, spread false claims about EU integration, and amplify divisive issues, from energy prices to identity politics. As Valeriu Pașa of WatchDog.MD described it, Russia’s machine aims not to persuade, but to “confuse, divide, and paralyse.”
Offline, the hybrid war includes staged provocations. Paid operatives have created fake posters linking the EU and PAS to unpopular causes, staged scenes for social media, and manipulated public symbols to feed anti-European narratives.
Gazprom’s halt of gas supplies to Transnistria in early 2025, which disrupted Moldova’s power supply and triggered price spikes, added another layer of pressure. Prime Minister Dorin Recean accused Moscow of “weaponizing energy to destabilise Moldova.”
As former Romanian diplomat Eusebiu Slavitescu put it on TVP World: “Russia’s massive interference machine will do absolutely everything to win in Moldova in September. The stakes for Russia now are enormous.”
The battle on the ground
Moldova’s political field is fractured. The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), a pro-European, centre-right reformist party, is campaigning on its record of pushing judicial reforms, anti-corruption measures, and European integration.
However, economic pressures, rising energy costs, and accusations of overreach have chipped away at its support. The banning in 2023 of a pro-Russian party headed by Ilan Shor, a fugitive pro-Russian oligarch and convicted fraudster now based in Russia, while praised by supporters as a defence of democracy, has fuelled opposition claims that PAS governs in an authoritarian style, silencing opponents under the guise of security.
Facing PAS is the Alternative bloc, a newly formed coalition that positions itself as a centre-left alliance promising competent governance, social stability, and a more balanced foreign policy between East and West.
It is led by Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor-general and moderate pro-dialogue figure, known for advocating recalibrated relations with Moscow while keeping European integration on the table.
Stoianoglo, who narrowly lost to Sandu in the 2024 presidential race, has built the bloc with figures like Chișinău Mayor Ion Ceban and former prime minister Ion Chicu, both of whom share his position on adjusting relations with Russia without abandoning EU membership ambitions.
Meanwhile, the shadow of Ilan Shor persists. Although his party was banned, his network continues to fund proxies, such as the Revival party, a pro-Russian formation seen as a vehicle for Ilan Shor’s influence, and independents.
The diaspora vote, critical to Sandu’s past wins, remains contested. Socialists accuse PAS of manipulating it. Sandu insists it reflects legitimate democratic choice.
With polling data hard to come by and 20% of voters undecided, the risk of a hung parliament or a kingmaker role for pro-Russian forces is real.
The Russian energy weapon
In January 2025, Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region that hosts Moldova’s largest power station at Cuciurgan. The plant had supplied around 40% of Moldova’s electricity.
The cut-off triggered immediate shortages and forced Moldova to rely on emergency imports from Romania at far higher prices. Within days, households and businesses faced electricity bills up to 75% higher.
The government scrambled to stabilise the grid, but supply disruptions and rolling blackouts deepened public frustration.
In parts of Chișinău, residents went without power for eight hours a day during the worst of the crisis. Shops and schools closed early as generators failed.
Prime Minister Dorin Recean accused Moscow of deliberate sabotage. “Russia is weaponizing energy to destabilise Moldova,” he said, warning that Gazprom’s tactics were aimed at breaking public trust in the pro-European government.
Kremlin-aligned parties and media seized on the crisis, blaming PAS for economic mismanagement and claiming that neutrality, or closer ties with Russia, would have avoided the pain. The energy weapon, once again, became a tool of hybrid war.
Europe’s response: strong on paper, fragile in practice
The EU, NATO, and the US have rallied behind Moldova’s pro-European government, but the gap between support and impact is growing.
Brussels has deployed a Hybrid Rapid Response Team, helped launch a new disinformation observatory hub, and provided Moldova access to EU cybersecurity reserves.
NATO stepped up joint exercises on energy and cyber resilience, with Secretary-General Mark Rutte praising Moldova’s “resilience against unprecedented Russian interference.”
Romania has supplied emergency fuel and power links, while the US sanctioned key figures in Ilan Shor’s network for subverting Moldovan elections.
Tech giants have participated in democracy stress tests and pledged cooperation. Meta, Google, TikTok, and YouTube joined simulations and agreed to flag Kremlin-linked propaganda.
Enforcement, however, has proven patchy as disinformation continues to flood Moldovan social media. Russia’s hybrid campaign has outpaced outside help, exploiting every delay and gap to chip away at Moldova’s stability and European ambitions.
The result will not just decide Moldova’s future. It will show whether Europe can protect its model when faced with a war fought not with tanks, but with cash, lies, and fear.
A version of this article first appeared at TVP World
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