CZECH WATCH: Babiš no longer heading for a cakewalk as Czech election race tightens
Turnout and late-deciding voters may now prove decisive, turning a race long seen as drifting toward a Babiš victory into an unexpectedly open battleground.
With Andrej Babiš’s ANO movement slipping below 30%, the campaign for the Czech parliamentary election in October now resembles a chessboard where voter mobilisation, turnout and fragmentation dictate every move and it no longer looks like a formality for Babiš.
A new poll shows ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens), the centrist-populist party led by billionaire former prime minister Andrej Babiš, is polling below 30% for the first time since May 2024.
Babiš’s main ally, the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party led by Tomio Okamura, is also running out of road.
Meanwhile, possible ANO coalition partners Stačilo!, a far-left protest alliance dominated by the Czech Communist Party, and the Motorists, a right-populist anti-establishment party focused on car drivers' rights, are struggling to stay above the five percent parliamentary threshold.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s Spolu coalition, which unites centre-right Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), and liberal-conservative TOP 09, has recovered modestly after the spring Bitcoin scandal, while the liberal-progressive Pirates have stabilised thanks to a new alliance with the Greens.
Czech voters will go to the polls on 3–4 October. Turnout and late-deciding voters may now prove decisive, turning a race long seen as drifting toward a Babiš victory into an unexpectedly open battleground.
Challenges, geopolitics and implications
The October election comes after two turbulent years for the governing Spolu coalition. Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, formed in late 2021, has faced significant unpopularity due to tax increases, austerity measures, and the fallout from the Bitcoin scandal that damaged the coalition’s reputation for competence and integrity.
Babiš’s return would raise questions over Czechia’s current support for Ukraine. ANO, Stačilo! and SPD are all eurosceptic and have challenged Czechia’s NATO commitments.
Turbocharged by an alliance with SPD, a Babiš-led coalition would raise the spectre of an illiberal bloc forming with neighbours Slovakia and Hungary.
Czech election mechanics
The mechanics of Czech elections have become central to the 2025 race. The thresholds that electoral alliances must cross and the handling of wasted votes could all decide the outcome even if ANO remains the largest party.
To enter the lower house, the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies, parties must win at least five percent of the national vote. Electoral coalitions face higher thresholds: eight percent for two-party coalitions and eleven percent for alliances of three or more parties. This structure significantly shapes party strategies and alliances.
Votes cast for parties that fall below the threshold risk falling through a political trapdoor and being discarded entirely and redistributed among those that cross the line.
This amplifies the power of larger parties and punishes fragmentation, giving a strong advantage to parties able to clear the threshold while disadvantaging scattered protest parties.
Turnout plays a central role. Czech turnout is typically in the 55–65% range, and higher participation tends to favour mainstream and liberal parties, while lower turnout can inflate the share of protest parties.
Examples of this structure at work include Spolu itself, an alliance of three parties which must clear an eleven-percent threshold. However, the informal liberal Pirate-Green alliance avoids that higher bar by placing Green candidates on Pirate lists.
Poll numbers and trends
The latest survey from pollster NMS shows ANO at 28.7%, its lowest level since May 2024 and a sharp contrast to peaks earlier this year when the party polled consistently above 32%.
"The decline in ANO’s support is mainly due to the fact that ANO voters in July are less willing to participate in elections than other voter groups," noted NMS in its July survey.
Jan Tvrdoň of Deník N news site observed that "the drop below 30% is an early warning for Babiš – his lead is not secure."
Spolu stands at 21.5%, regaining ground after months of stagnation following the Bitcoin scandal that brought down former justice minister Pavel Blažek.
The far-right SPD, touted as a likely governing coalition partner for ANO, is polling at 13.3%, down more than three points since June, reflecting a broader weakening among opposition parties.
Potential ANO coalition partner Stačilo! is barely above the single party threshold at 5.8%, while the Motorists, another potential ANO ally, have been hit by a domestic violence scandal surrounding their leading figure Filip Turek, and have dropped to 3.2%, a decline of nearly four points since April.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have recovered to 7.9%, their best showing in a year, boosted by their alliance with the Greens.
The government bloc of Spolu together with STAN and the Pirates now collectively holds around 41% of voter support, putting them within striking distance of ANO and SPD combined.
Both STAN and the Pirates served in the current government as junior coalition partners alongside Spolu, and remain potential allies after the election.
Analysts note that late-deciding voters remain crucial. According to Martin Buchtík of STEM, a leading Czech polling agency, a third of voters say they will only decide in the final weeks. This volatile late shift, combined with turnout fluctuations, now defines the race’s uncertainty.
On a cliff edge
Stačilo! and the Motorists illustrate the threshold risks. As NMS notes, “Stačilo! may depend on fractions of a percentage point, and every tenth of a point lost puts its future in the Chamber of Deputies at risk.”
Jan Tvrdoň writes that “the Motorists’ decline and Stačilo!’s weakness mean wasted votes may now decisively shape the post-election arithmetic.”
The far-right SPD, led by Tomio Okamura, has fallen from 16% earlier this year to 13.3%, suggesting it too may have peaked.
Meanwhile, the Pirates’ alliance with the Greens appears to be working: their joint vote has climbed back near 8%, consolidating liberal-left support that could otherwise have fragmented.
If Stačilo! and the Motorists fail to cross the five-percent threshold, their votes would be discarded and redistributed, an outcome that weakens the opposition bloc numerically, even if ANO remains the single largest party.
These structural factors could allow the government bloc, currently polling at 41% taken together, to narrow the gap.
Turnout and late-deciding voters
Turnout and late-deciding voters now loom as wild cards in the election. Head of pollster STEM, Martin Buchtík, recently noted that “a third of voters say they will decide only in the final weeks,” reflecting a campaign landscape in which parties deliberately hold back resources until September.
As Buchtík explained, Czech parties view the summer as too early to engage voters distracted by holidays and sports, waiting instead for a concentrated autumn push.
This year, ANO’s core voters appear less motivated to vote. As NMS reported, “ANO voters in July are less willing to participate in elections than other voter groups.” If this persists while liberal and centrist voters turn out at higher rates, the government bloc could close the gap.
The large number of undecided voters only adds to the volatility. As Tvrdoň observed, “This will be a late-breaking race, volatility in turnout and decisions in the final two weeks may matter more than any polling lead today.”
A game of margins
What does this new polling mean for October? If Stačilo! slips below the five percent threshold, its votes would be lost and redistributed, mostly benefiting larger parties.
The Motorists, already below the line, face a similar fate. If turnout rises among disaffected centrist and liberal voters, the government bloc could claw back enough ground to challenge an ANO-led coalition.
Far-right SPD's polling has crested a wave and now appears to be ebbing, suggesting that Babiš may not have a stable path to a majority even if ANO holds first place. that Babiš may not have a stable path to a majority even if ANO holds first place.
The combined weakening of ANO’s allies creates a volatile battlefield, with the political terrain shifting beneath all parties 84 days before polls open.
A race defined by structure, not sentiment
This election is no longer simply a referendum on Andrej Babiš. The real contest now is a battle shaped by threshold rules and system mechanics, a fight where wasted votes and turnout swings may outweigh personalities and slogans.
A version of this article first appeared at TVP World.